Is Kamala Harris crumbling in the polls? Digging into the data

With just a month left before the presidential election, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is tightening.

After Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in late July, early polling favored the vice president, with some national surveys giving her as much as a 7-point lead over Trump.

This shift marked a turnaround for Trump, who had led Biden in earlier polls. Since August 8, FiveThirtyEight’s election simulator has consistently predicted Harris as the likely winner over Trump. However, while Harris still leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight, recent polling indicates that the gap between the two candidates is narrowing as the election approaches.

The latest ActiVote poll, conducted from October 3-8, showed Donald Trump holding a 1.2-point lead nationwide. That came after a September poll from ActiVote had Kamala Harris ahead by 5.4 points. Both polls surveyed 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The October poll marked the first time since September 22 that Trump has been shown leading in a national poll.

Polls in the swing states have also looked positive for Trump in recent days. Recent polling from Quinnipiac University showed that Trump is 4 points ahead in Michigan in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead with third-party candidates included. It also showed that Trump was ahead by 2 points in Wisconsin. Harris has led both states since the end of July, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Meanwhile, the poll put Harris 2 points ahead in Pennsylvania in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead when third-party candidates were included—a lead within the survey’s margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

In Quinnipiac University’s September 18 poll, Harris held a lead in Pennsylvania, a slight lead in Michigan, and the race was essentially tied in Wisconsin.

However, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows that Harris remains ahead in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, which would give her enough votes to win, while Trump is ahead in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.

Nonetheless, polls in the swing states remain very close, indicating that the race is still anybody’s to win. Amid what could be the closest race in 150 years, Newsweek has examined the data in each swing state.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, the most likely state to decide the election, Harris is currently polling 0.6 points ahead of Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver’s polling tracker shows that her lead is slightly bigger in the state, at 1 point.

However, while Harris has a marginal lead in the state, which offers 19 electoral votes, recent polls have indicated that a Trump victory in Pennsylvania is not out of the question.

Silver’s tracker shows that Trump has gained 0.3 points in Pennsylvania since last week, bringing his vote share to 47.6 percent compared to Harris’ 48.6 percent. Harris was 1.3 points ahead in the state a week ago.

RealClearPolitics’ tracker also shows that Trump gained 0.3 points in Pennsylvania after he and Harris tied in the state a week ago.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows that both Trump and Harris have gained 0.1 points in the state since October 4, taking the vice president’s vote share up to 48 percent and Trump’s up to 47.4 percent.

Some recent surveys have also given Trump a lead of between 1 and 2 points.

In the past week, polls conducted by TIPP Insights, Fabrizio, Lee and Associates and Emerson College have put Trump in the lead among likely voters by 1 point. An Insider Advantage poll conducted between October 7 and 8 gave Trump a 2-point lead among 800 likely voters.

However, other polls have put Harris ahead by as much as 4 points. While the TIPP Insights poll put Trump ahead among likely voters, it showed that among 1,079 registered voters, Harris was leading by 4 points—just outside of the survey’s margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Another poll, conducted by Research Co. between October 5 and 7, put Harris 1 point ahead among 450 likely voters, while Quinnipiac University’s poll put her ahead by between 2 and 3 points. A Hunt Research poll conducted between October 2 and 7 showed the two candidates were tied when third-party candidates were included, while Trump led by 1 point in a head-to-head matchup.

Nonetheless, the small margins by which the candidates lead in the polls indicate that Pennsylvania is still one of the tightest races in this election and is not predetermined for any candidate.

Wisconsin

Harris is leading in Wisconsin by 0.5 points, 47.9 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. Her lead in the state in Silver’s tracker is much larger at 1.2 points.

However, Silver’s tracker also shows that Trump has gained 0.8 points in the state since last week, bringing his vote share up to 47.6 percent and cutting Harris’ 2-point lead in half. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows Harris’ lead has decreased by 1 point since last week.

Meanwhile, Harris has only had the lead in one poll conducted in the state in the past week. The poll, conducted by Research Co., gave her a 2-point lead among 450 likely voters—a lead well within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

All other polls this week, including surveys conducted by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, Emerson College, Quinnipiac University and Arc Insights, have shown Trump leading by between 1 and 2 points. One poll, conducted by InsiderAdvantage between October 8 and 9 among 800 likely voters, showed the two candidates tied.

Michigan

In Michigan, Trump had the biggest gain this week of 0.9 points, according to Silver’s forecast.

The forecast shows Harris leading in Michigan, which Biden flipped in 2020, by 1.1 points. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows that she is currently leading by 0.6 points after leading by 1.5 points a week ago.

Meanwhile, of the five polls conducted in the state this week, three, including surveys by InsiderAdvantage, Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, and Quinnipiac University, showed Trump in the lead by between 1 and 4 points.

One poll, conducted by Research Co., put Harris in the lead by 3 points, while an Emerson College poll showed she and Trump were tied.

Nevada

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is currently leading in Nevada by 0.8 points, on 47.8 percent to Trump’s 47 percent. Nate Silver’s polling tracker shows that she is leading by 1.5 points. Harris’ lead in Nevada is larger than in any other swing state in both trackers.

Both trackers show that while Trump’s vote share has increased marginally in the past week, Harris’ has stayed the same at 47.8 percent and 48.9 percent, respectively.

According to Silver’s tracker, Trump has gained 0.4 points in the polls in Nevada in the past week, while FiveThirtyEight shows he has gained 0.1 points.

Not many polls have been conducted in the state since last week. However, the ones that were did not show promising results for Harris. A Fabrizio, Lee and Associates poll put Trump 3 points ahead in the state. His lead was just within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Meanwhile, a poll by Emerson College put Harris ahead by just 1 point, well within the poll’s margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.

Georgia

Georgia is the only state where Democrats have gained in the past week, according to Silver. However, polls still show that Trump is ahead.

FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows that Trump currently leads by 0.9 points, 48.2 points to Harris’ 47.3, with his lead having reduced from 1.4 points this time last week. Silver’s tracker gives the former president a lead of 0.7 points, down from 1 point last week, giving Harris a net gain of 0.3 points.

However, although Harris has made a net gain in the state, Silver’s average shows that her vote share has remained the same at 47.8 points, while no polls conducted in the state this week have given Harris a lead.

Fabrizio, Lee and Associates’ poll put Trump in the lead by 5 points, outside of the poll’s margin of error. Meanwhile, a Trafalgar Group poll conducted between October 7 and 8 put Trump in the lead by 1 point. Emerson College’s poll showed Harris and Trump were tied.

Arizona

In Arizona, Trump leads by 1.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. Silver’s tracker shows the former president leading by 1.3 points.

Silver’s tracker shows that Trump has made a marginal gain of 0.1 points, with his lead up from 1.2 points since October 4. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight shows that Trump’s lead has stayed the same at 1.4 points.

Harris only led in 1 poll conducted in the state this week, a SoCal Strategies survey conducted between October 5 and 7, which put her in the lead by 1 point among 735 likely voters.

Meanwhile, 3 polls have put Trump ahead by between 1 and 3 points. Those include polls by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, where Harris trailed her opponent by 3 points; Emerson College, where Trump was ahead by 2 points; and ActiVote, where Trump was ahead by 1 point among 400 likely voters.

North Carolina

Along with Pennsylvania, North Carolina is one of the closest states in the election. Trump is currently leading by 0.7 points in Silver’s tracker and 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s tracker.

With Trump leading in the state, Silver’s model shows that he has gained 0.2 points in the state since last week, when his lead stood at 0.5 points. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows a 0.1 gain for Trump since October 4, when he was ahead of Harris by 0.8 points.

Similarly to other swing states, only one poll has given Harris the lead in the Tar Heel State in the past week. An ActiVote survey conducted between September 7 and October 6 put her 2 points ahead, within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

Meanwhile, polls conducted by Emerson College and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates put Trump 1 point ahead.

Nonetheless, Trump’s gains across the swing states have been marginal, and Silver warned readers in his newsletter not to take them too seriously.

“This is pretty minor movement and could also just reflect noise,” he wrote.