Electoral College map projector flips third state from Kamala Harris
A key swing state has flipped in favor of Donald Trump, according to a new Electoral College map projection.
RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker shows that Nevada has flipped to Trump, with the former president now 0.2 points ahead of his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the state, on 48.2 percent to her 48 percent. The tracker previously had Harris leading in the state, which President Joe Biden flipped to blue in 2020, since September 2.
Trump’s lead in Nevada means the pollster is now forecasting that the former president will win the election with 302 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 236. Nevada has 6 electoral votes.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
The shift is driven by a poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO for The Wall Street Journal between September 28 and October 10, which put Trump 6 points ahead in a head-to-head matchup and 5 points ahead with third-party candidates included. The poll surveyed 600 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Ross D. Franklin and Alex Brandon/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The move on the RealClearPolitics tracker comes only one day after the site’s tracker shifted Michigan to Trump, where it has him leading by 0.9 points. On September 29, the site also gave Pennsylvania to the Republican, although it has him leading only by a razor-thin 0.1-point margin.
It means that RealClearPolitics now predicts a Trump win in six of the seven swing states (Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia), and predicts Harris to only win Wisconsin, giving Trump a clear lead.
However, other recent polls show a closer race in Nevada, including one conducted by Emerson College for Nexstar, in which Harris leads by 1 point, and another conducted by InsiderAdvantage, with Trump leading by 1 point.
Other aggregators still put Harris in the lead in the state. For example, FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker puts the vice president 0.5 point ahead of Trump, while poll aggregator Nate Silver puts her 0.9 points ahead.
Nevada has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since it voted for Barack Obama in 2008.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the closest races in U.S. history. The latest polls often show Harris and Trump separated by points within the margin of error (which for most polls is at least 3), both nationally and in several states.
The poll trackers by RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver all currently have the candidates separated by less than 2 points in all seven swing states, with many race trackers showing them separated by less than 1 point.
