Abigail Spanberger odds of becoming Virginia governor 8 months to election

Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat and former U.S. House representative, scored another polling victory on Tuesday, eight months before Virginia’s gubernatorial race.

Why It Matters

The off-year Virginia governor election is often viewed as a referendum on the president, in this case President Donald Trump. Democrats won in 2017, following Trump’s first victory, but Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin won in 2021, despite the state’s leftward shift over the past few decades.

For Republicans, the election will be a gage into whether they are able to hold onto some of the voters they gained in 2024. Meanwhile, it will be a key test for Democrats’ messaging as they seek to stage a comeback at state and national levels.

The race may also be an early bellwether of the popularity of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the task force led by Elon Musk that is aimed at cutting unnecessary spending. Virginia is home to more than 140,000 federal workers, making it a commonwealth that may be especially affected by the firing of federal workers.

What To Know

A new poll from Cygnal showed Spanberger, who previously represented both Richmond suburbs and Northern Virginia in Congress, with a narrow lead over Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican. It surveyed 600 likely voters from February 26 to February 27.

Forty-six percent of respondents said they intend to mark their ballot for Spanberger in November, while only 40 percent said they plan to vote for Earle-Sears.

“In a state Harris won by 6, Spanberger currently leads by the same margin, showing a competitive race under a Trump presidency,” Cygnal wrote in a poll write-up.

One week earlier, a poll from the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research similarly showed Spanberger with a lead, though it notably showed nearly one-third of voters were still unsure about how they’d vote.

It found that 39 percent of voters favor Spanberger, while 24 percent favor Earle-Sears. Thirty-two percent were undecided and four percent said they planned to vote for another candidate.

Earlier independent polling has also showed Spanberger with an early advantage.

A Virginia Commonwealth University poll, conducted among 806 adults from December 18, 2024 to January 15, 2025, showed Spanberger up 10 points, winning 44 percent support compared to Earle-Sears’ 34 percent.

Notably, no polls have shown either candidate with a majority so far.

Virginia, once a reliably Republican state, shifted toward Democrats throughout the past few decades, but it still remains competitive. Vice President Kamala Harris only carried the state by about 5.7 points in 2024, and Governor Youngkin won the governorship by nearly two points in 2021.

Newsweek reached out to the Spanberger and Earle-Sears campaigns for comment via email.

What People Are Saying

Harry Wilson, interim director at Roanoke University’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, in a press release: “Even with one-third undecided, a candidate would prefer to be in Abigail Spanberger’s position with a 15-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears. But there is an eternity of political time and much work to do before this election takes center stage.”

Veteran political scientist Larry Sabato previously told Newsweek: “The early bet is on Spanberger but it’s way too early to bet unless you have money to burn—or extra eggs to give away. Too many things can happen. If Trump is very unpopular as he was in 2017, it’s bound to help Spanberger as it helped [Former Governor Ralph] Northam in 2017. Just like Youngkin was assisted by Biden’s unpopularity in 2021.”

What Happens Next

Spanberger and Earle-Sears are both viewed as favorites to win their party’s nominations. Virginia voters will pick their next governor on November 4, 2025.