A Unique Opportunity for Israel to Normalize Ties With Lebanon | Opinion

It was a message heard around the world. On Sunday, as Hezbollah members and supporters gathered at the Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium in Beirut to bury their revered leader, Hassan Nasrallah—killed in an Israeli Air Force bombing in September—a roar rippled through the crowd.

High above the stadium, four Israeli fighter jets cut through the skies in a dramatic flyover, delivering a clear message. These jets were responsible for Nasrallah’s demise, and Israel will not hesitate to strike other Hezbollah leaders as necessary.

Two of the jets were state-of-the-art fifth-generation F-35s, bearing the Hebrew name “Adir,” meaning “mighty,” while the other two were long-range F-15s, known as “Ra’am,” meaning “thunder.” As the IDF later stated, it was a “mighty thunder” heard across the Middle East.

This dramatic flyover was far from a mere symbolic gesture. Before the war broke out 16 months ago, Israel would never have flown over a Hezbollah rally just for show. The potential for triggering a retaliatory strike that could spiral into a broader conflict would have been the primary consideration. The reason Israel can do this today is that the region has changed in the wake of the war that Israel was forced into after Hamas’s brutal invasion on Oct. 7, 2023, and Hezbollah’s subsequent decision to join the fray.

In this new Middle East, a fragile ceasefire now exists between Israel and Hezbollah, which is supposed to stay out of southern Lebanon. Its leadership has been decimated, and its infrastructure across southern Lebanon has suffered extensive destruction. Command centers and weapons storage facilities, once the backbone of its operational capabilities, have been reduced to rubble.

In Gaza, while Hamas might still be in charge, it is undeniably a shadow of what it looked like on Oct. 6. In Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s regime has fallen, and Iran—Hezbollah’s main financier—is also in an increasingly vulnerable position. The loss of its proxies, coupled with Israeli bombings that destroyed its sophisticated Russian air defense systems, has rendered Iran more exposed than ever before.

This situation—particularly in Lebanon—presents the West with a unique opportunity. The new leadership in Beirut appears, at least on the surface, to be committed to confronting Hezbollah and preventing it from rearming. Both President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have expressed their desire to diminish Iranian influence over Lebanon and dismantle Hezbollah’s disproportionate power over the fractured country.

For example, the new government has banned flights from Iran into Lebanon after Israel threatened to shoot down any planes suspected of being used to smuggle contraband into the country.

Concurrently, public sentiment in Lebanon is undergoing a transformation. Criticism of Hezbollah has grown, and Lebanese media outlets that were once cautious now feel emboldened to question the organization’s long-held narrative of being the protector of the Lebanese people. Social media is abuzz with calls to remove Hezbollah, and some Lebanese are even advocating for normalization with Israel—something that would have seemed impossible just a few months ago.

The United States and Europe have significant leverage to help make this happen, but they cannot do it alone; any progress will require diplomatic courage in both Jerusalem and Beirut.

Aoun seeks to strengthen ties with the U.S., which already provides considerable support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) through financial aid, weapons supplies, and training programs. As a former LAF commander, Aoun understands that to improve the LAF’s capabilities and ensure it can effectively counter Hezbollah, the LAF will require more modern equipment and strategic support. This gives the U.S. administration leverage in negotiations.

On the Israeli front, however, the continued tension in Gaza and the threat of renewed conflict make it challenging to achieve progress. Just as Saudi Arabia awaits the conclusion of the war, not much can happen with Lebanon until the fighting is over.

President Donald Trump is uniquely positioned to seize this moment. He aims to be seen as a dealmaker and peacemaker, and with the Middle East experiencing one of its most transformative moments in its volatile history, there is now an opportunity to usher in a new era of regional cooperation and stability.

Ultimately, the true burden of change lies with the Lebanese people themselves. It is incumbent upon them to keep the pressure on Hezbollah and ensure that the group does not rearm. For too long, Hezbollah has positioned itself as the defender of the Lebanese people. After years of financial ruin and now another war, the Lebanese people recognize this narrative as false. While many Lebanese wanted Israel to continue fighting to free their country from Iran’s clutches, the real work must be done by the Lebanese themselves. Only they can change their future.

Lebanon stands at a crossroads. If its leaders and people seize this moment, they can free themselves from decades of war. The West, and particularly Israel, need to act strategically to support this transformation. The choice is there; the opportunity is now.

Yaakov Katz is the co-author of the forthcoming book “While Israel Slept” and is a senior fellow at JPPI, a global Jewish think tank based in Jerusalem.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.